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IN FOCUS
MPLA: Carneiro’s exclusion makes Angola’s succession more dangerous
The MPLA may be able to eliminate internal competition, but it cannot eliminate the public discontent that will shape the 2027 election
The rejection of Higino Carneiro’s candidacy for the MPLA presidency makes João Lourenço’s victory at the party congress in December appear almost certain. But it does not answer who will be president of Angola after 2027.
Carneiro’s submission may contain the irregularities alleged by the MPLA’s candidacy subcommittee. Of the 14,493 supporting forms it counted, the committee declared just 2,561 valid. Carneiro is entitled to ask why a final-looking decision was announced months before the candidacy deadline, however, and to demand an opportunity to inspect the thousands of forms declared invalid or false.
The dispute is more significant than Carneiro’s prospects. His candidacy offered the MPLA an opportunity to demonstrate that it could manage internal competition after half a century in power. Instead, the party appears to be reverting to its established practice of treating a challenge to its leader as an act of disloyalty.
Lourenço need not seek an unconstitutional third presidential mandate to preserve his influence. By remaining MPLA president, he could oversee the choice of the party’s national candidate and retain substantial authority if that candidate wins. Eliminating Carneiro therefore strengthens Lourenço’s grip on the succession while leaving Angolans uncertain about who is being prepared to lead them.
That approach carries growing risks. The MPLA’s machinery remains formidable, particularly outside the major cities, where opposition parties face persistent obstacles to organising. But its electoral base is ageing while Angola’s overwhelmingly young population becomes more urban, connected and impatient. UNITA’s strong performance in Luanda in 2022 demonstrated the scale of that shift.
The MPLA can control access to its congress more easily than it can control this wider political change. Social media is weakening its dominance over information, while stagnant living standards and scarce employment are giving younger Angolans little reason to defend the existing settlement.
A competitive leadership contest might have helped the MPLA adapt before 2027. By closing that route, the party is pushing political competition back outside its own structures — where it will be harder to manage and potentially much more disruptive.
Also in today’s Angola Briefing:
Carneiro challenges exclusion from MPLA leadership contest (Lusa, Novo Jornal, DW)
Debt rises as World Bank warns of declining per capita incomes (Lusa, Novo Jornal, Ministry of Finance)
Lobito financing advances as Barra do Dande seeks $900m (Africa Finance Corporation announcement reported by Africa.com, Expansão, Mercado)
Government considers higher electricity tariffs for large consumers (Angola24Horas, VerAngola)
Russian nationals jailed for terrorism and espionage (The Guardian, Lusa, RFI)
Carneiro challenges exclusion from MPLA leadership contest (Lusa, Novo Jornal, DW)
Sources: Lusa, Novo Jornal, DW
The MPLA’s candidacy subcommittee has annulled Higino Carneiro’s bid for the party presidency, citing serious irregularities in the documentation submitted by his campaign. Of the 14,493 supporting forms counted by the committee, 2,561 were declared valid, 9,659 invalid and 2,273 false. Carneiro has filed a complaint with the commission preparing the party’s 9–10 December congress, arguing that the decision was premature because candidacies can be submitted until 25 October. He has demanded access to the rejected forms and a document-by-document review in the presence of his representative. President João Lourenço is currently the only validated candidate for the MPLA leadership.
It is difficult to see Carneiro forcing his way back into the contest. The allegations over his supporting documents give the MPLA grounds to pursue disciplinary or even legal action against him, and the party leadership has shown little appetite for genuine competition. His carefully phrased challenge may now be about preserving his standing within the party and demonstrating that he has support, rather than any real expectation of defeating Lourenço.
Carneiro’s candidacy was still revealing. The enthusiasm it generated, including among some younger Angolans, reflected a desire for choice and change rather than excitement about Carneiro himself. For the first time, the MPLA faced the possibility of a real contest for its leadership and responded by closing it down before it could develop.
The more interesting question is what Lourenço plans to do with another term as MPLA president. He would not need to seek a third term as head of state to remain highly influential: he could choose the party’s 2027 candidate and retain considerable power after the election. That may settle the immediate contest inside the MPLA, but it does nothing to tackle the party’s waning appeal among young and urban Angolans.
Debt rises as World Bank warns of declining per capita incomes
Sources: Lusa, Novo Jornal, Angolan Ministry of Finance
Angola’s public debt rose 9.1% during the first half of 2026 to Kz65.8tn ($72bn), equivalent to 51.24% of GDP, according to the government’s review of its Annual Borrowing Plan. External debt accounted for Kz46.5tn and domestic debt Kz19.3tn. The increase followed approximately $4bn of Eurobond issuance, while the government also bought back $1.2bn of securities ahead of large maturities in 2028–29 and reduced oil-collateralised debt to $6.83bn. Separately, the World Bank forecast average economic growth of 2.7% in 2026–28, below annual population growth of around 3.1%, and projected that approximately 42% of Angolans will remain in poverty through 2027.
Lobito financing advances as Barra do Dande seeks $900m
Sources: Africa Finance Corporation in Africa.com, Expansão, Mercado
The Lobito Corridor has reached a $753m financial close for upgrading its Angolan railway infrastructure, with financing from Africa Finance Corporation, the US International Development Finance Corporation and the Development Bank of Southern Africa. The Democratic Republic of Congo has also approved a public-private partnership with Mota-Engil to rehabilitate the Dilolo–Kolwezi–Lubumbashi–Sakania railway. Separately, Huatong Angola Industry and Berkshire Waterhouse Infrastructure Development have announced a proposed $900m investment in a deep-water terminal and associated infrastructure in the Barra do Dande Free Zone. The renewable 25-year sub-concession is awaiting institutional approvals, with its first phase expected to take 24 months.
Government considers higher electricity tariffs for large consumers
Sources: Angola24Horas, VerAngola
The government’s Economic Commission has reviewed a proposal to increase electricity tariffs for large consumers while leaving household and social tariffs unchanged. The government says the partial adjustment is intended to improve the finances of public electricity companies and support investment in expanding and modernising the system. No proposed tariff level or implementation date has been announced.
Russian nationals jailed for terrorism and espionage
Sources: The Guardian, Lusa, RFI
A Luanda court has sentenced Russian nationals Igor Ratchin and Lev Lakshtanov to 11 and eight years in prison respectively for offences including criminal association, espionage, terrorism and illegally retaining foreign currency. TPA journalist Amor Carlos Tomé received a two-year suspended sentence, while former UNITA youth official Francisco Oliveira, known as Buka Tanda, was acquitted. Prosecutors alleged that the defendants participated in an international network seeking to destabilise Angola and influence the 2027 elections. The prosecution and defence have appealed, and the Russian defendants remain detained pending a ruling.
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