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This week, host and Zitamar editor-at-large Fernando Lima is joined by Florindo Chivucute, founder and executive director of Friends of Angola and an expert on democracy, civil society and human rights.
We begin with worsening hunger in southern Angola despite the inauguration of new dams, the government’s €658 million Luanda water project, and major transactions reshaping the country’s banking sector.
Then, in our election special, Fernando and Florindo examine the opposition’s prospects of challenging the MPLA in 2027, the unresolved tensions between UNITA and PRA-JA, and the contest over who could eventually succeed João Lourenço. They also discuss Higino Carneiro’s legal challenge, the independence of Angola’s courts, political violence, voter disengagement and the difficulties of measuring public opinion ahead of the election.
TODAY’S STORIES
Food insecurity worsens in southern Angola despite new dams (FEWS NET, CIPRA)
Government approves €658 million expansion of Luanda’s water network (Government of Angola / CIPRA)
BFA sale and Standard Bank privatisation reshape Angola’s banking sector (Expansão, Standard Invest)
1. Southern Angola faces worsening food insecurity despite new dams
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that weaker harvests and a likely dry start to the next growing season could aggravate food insecurity into early 2027. FAO reports the largest rainfall deficits in central Angola, while southern millet and sorghum yields are expected to be near their five-year average.
Separately, Amnesty International reports that recurring drought and inadequate protection of livelihoods have driven families from southern Angola into Namibia, where displaced women and children face human-rights abuses. President João Lourenço inaugurated the Ndúe and Calucuve dams in Cunene on 5 September. According to the government, their combined storage capacity is 311 million cubic metres, intended to improve water security and support agriculture and livestock.
Florindo Chivucute welcomed the investment but questioned whether it would deliver relief quickly enough. He said Friends of Angola had repeatedly called for an emergency declaration and international assistance. His argument exposes a gap between the timescale of infrastructure programmes and the immediate needs of households struggling to feed themselves.
Reliable water supplies could help families protect livestock and resume farming. Recovery becomes harder, however, once animals have been sold or families have abandoned their land. Emergency assistance can preserve the means of earning a living, reducing the risk that one failed season becomes years of dependence.
The dams should therefore be assessed alongside the support available to households through the coming lean season. Chivucute also questioned maintenance arrangements and whether local communities had been sufficiently consulted. Those concerns deserve follow-up: the location and reliability of water access will determine who benefits. Evidence that families can sustain production and remain on their land would tell us considerably more than storage capacity alone.
2. Government approves €658 million Luanda water project
President João Lourenço has authorised a €658 million project to rehabilitate and expand Luanda’s drinking-water distribution network. The government says it could benefit approximately three million residents in densely populated neighbourhoods with inadequate coverage. The authorisation provides for simplified procurement, citing external financing, with Maabar Investments SPC undertaking the work and Oman Investment Bank providing financing under an agreement between Angola and Oman.
A further €19.7 million has been authorised for supervision, to be undertaken by a consortium of DAR Al-Handasah and DAR Angola. The government says the scheme will complement existing initiatives, including Bita and Quilonga Grande.
Expanding distribution could turn investment in water production into a service that reaches more homes. Reliable, affordable supplies would also ease the time and expense households devote to obtaining water, potentially leaving more income available for food and other essentials. Those gains depend on the network working consistently after construction.
The procurement arrangement warrants scrutiny. External financing explains the government’s stated choice of procedure, but the public still needs to understand how the price was assessed and what obligations accompany the financing. Publishing the contract terms and delivery milestones would make it easier to judge value for money and identify delays.
Maintenance was a central concern in the webinar’s discussion of the Cunene dams. The same question applies in Luanda, where new connections will require dependable operation and a budget for repairs. The three-million-person estimate should be treated as a target. Reporting how many households receive water, how regularly and at what cost would provide a more useful measure of progress.
3. Major transactions reshape Angola’s banking sector
BPI has agreed to sell its 33.35% stake in Banco de Fomento Angola to Congolian Financial, part of the Carrinho Group. Fixed payments total approximately €388.5 million, plus a variable amount equal to half the 2026 dividend attributable to those shares. Completion remains conditional on regulatory clearances and Unitel not exercising its right of first refusal.
Separately, the state is offering 34% of Standard Bank Angola between 11 and 25 September. Of the bank’s total capital, 24% is reserved for Standard Bank Group and 10% for the public. Trading on BODIVA is expected to begin on 30 September.
Chivucute’s concern was that changes in ownership could concentrate economic influence without improving access to credit. Carrinho’s existing interests in BCI and Banco Keve make that a legitimate question for regulators, although the BFA agreement does not establish a banking monopoly. Where a commercial group also owns banks, scrutiny of lending to related companies becomes particularly important. Independent credit decisions help protect depositors and competing businesses from conflicts of interest.
The Standard Bank transaction offers a different ownership model, combining greater participation by its international parent with a public share sale. A listing can improve disclosure and give more investors access to bank earnings. Selling existing shares, however, does not itself provide the bank with fresh capital for lending.
Regulators should examine influence across Carrinho’s banking interests and the safeguards on lending within the group. For Standard Bank, the public allocation will be worth watching: who buys the shares, and how effectively minority investors can hold management to account, will shape the listing’s wider value.
IN FOCUS
The Road to Angola’s 2027 Elections: opposition divisions and an MPLA succession battle
PRA-JA’s decision to go it alone weakens UNITA’s proposed opposition front, while Higino Carneiro’s legal challenge and an unresolved succession struggle create uncertainty inside the governing party.
Angola’s opposition is preparing for the 2027 election with competing answers to a basic question: how does dissatisfaction become a change of government? UNITA has renewed its appeal for a broad Patriotic Front, while Abel Chivukuvuku says PRA-JA will stand independently. The disagreement concerns more than campaign tactics. It tests whether parties can offer a convincing account of how they would govern together.
That account needs to start with living conditions. Amnesty International’s September report documents how recurrent drought, compounded by inadequate protection of rural livelihoods, has pushed Angolans into Namibia. In this week’s Angola Briefing, Florindo Chivucute argued that hunger and unemployment were eroding support for the MPLA. His assessment identifies a potential electoral vulnerability; it cannot establish how widespread that shift is.
The government has tangible investments to defend. João Lourenço inaugurated the Ndúe and Calucuve dams on 5 September, and has authorised a €658 million expansion of Luanda’s water network. Such infrastructure could improve agricultural production and ease households’ burden of securing water. Its value depends on maintenance and distribution long after construction ends. The political test is whether promised benefits reach families; spending commitments alone cannot demonstrate that they do.
For rural households, reliable water could protect livestock and reduce the need to sell productive assets during drought. Families already short of food, however, cannot wait for the full benefits of infrastructure. Emergency support and the budgets needed to operate new systems deserve scrutiny alongside construction contracts. An opposition promising better services should explain how it would fund those less visible, continuing obligations.
Unity can strengthen a challenge to the MPLA because the presidency goes to the head of the national list winning the most votes. Yet coalition arithmetic is imperfect. PRA-JA, legalised in 2024, has an understandable interest in establishing its own identity. Separate lists could reach voters reluctant to support UNITA, even as they risk dividing support. Votes cannot simply be transferred by agreement between leaders.
The governing party also faces questions about internal competition. On 10 September, the Constitutional Court rejected Higino Carneiro’s injunction challenging the exclusion of his MPLA leadership candidacy. According to Novo Jornal, the court considered intervention premature while internal party remedies remained available. That procedural reasoning should not be mistaken for a determination of who should lead the MPLA, or evidence by itself of presidential interference.
Beyond these leadership disputes, August’s clashes between police and UNITA supporters in Uíge raise questions about the conditions for political participation. Parties need room to organise and voters need confidence that participation is worthwhile. UNITA’s call for more registration brigades points to practical obstacles that coalition negotiations cannot resolve. Official turnout was 44.8% in 2022, although that figure alone cannot explain why registered voters did not cast ballots.
The useful test over the coming year is whether governing and opposition parties accept measurable commitments on services and make their financing open to scrutiny. That would give the campaign substance beyond leadership negotiations, and voters a basis for holding the eventual winner to account.
Thank you for reading the Angola Briefing Newsletter, and to Florindo Chivucute for joining us this week.
Tune in next week for a special episode on Angola’s oil sector, exploring the industry’s outlook and what it means for the country’s economy.
